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From the Conservative Intelligence member's site

Cameron Wants Newark To Be His Springboard

2014’s political calendar is marked by three danger points for David Cameron (that we know of). The first was the European elections, when some feared that Conservative MPs would panic in the face of a UKIP victory. The second was the Newark by-election, when a defeat in this ultra-safe seat would have marked the start […]

Newark: Cameron’s Survival Moment?

The Newark by-election takes place in less than a week and, although the outcome is uncertain, we already know what will happen to at least one of the four main parties. The Liberal Democrats will get a bad result and come fourth – if not lower.  Reports this week suggest that they have been too […]

Farage Has Upstaged Miliband, But Helps Cameron To Look Serious

UKIP’s electoral success puts pressure on all the conventional parties, but most of all on Labour.  Ed Miliband has been comprehensively upstaged by Nigel Farage. Labour enjoyed a prolonged lead in the polls mainly because early in this Parliament, a large number of Liberal Democrats switched their support to it. They had not voted Lib […]

MPs Start To Regret Fixed Term Parliaments

Amid all the kerfuffle over the AV referendum, nobody noticed that another, equally important, constitutional change was being introduced. If anyone considered fixed term parliaments, it was only to add it to the list of things given to the Lib Dems to keep them happy, and little more. But fast-forward four years, and that change […]

15 Questions That Follow If Scotland Votes For Independence

 Will the Prime Minister resign – as a matter of honour because Scotland has been lost on his watch? Will he be forced to resign even if he is unwilling to do so?  46 letters of no confidence in him from Conservative backbenchers are required for a ballot of confidence in his leadership to be […]

The Past Destroyed Miller – Might Her Replacement Be The Conservative Party’s Future?

The Maria Miller scandal was rooted firmly in the past – the sins of the old expenses system still haunt Parliament, even years after it was abolished. The reshuffle following her resignation, though, was entirely about the future. First, there’s the short-term future of the Coalition government. Even before the expenses scandal reignited, DCMS was […]

The Crucial Importance Of Graham Brady

Four days after the 2010 general election of that year, the 1922 Committee of Conservative MPs met in the Commons.  David Cameron persuaded it to support in principle the formation of a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, arguing that the alternative was a Labour-LibDem Government that would force electoral reform through the Commons without a […]

Cameron The Pragmatist Pushes His Rivals Towards The Margins Of Politics

A point sometimes arrives, in a game of bridge, when it becomes clear that the cards are falling right for a player. Almost everything attempted by that player comes off, not only because of his or her own skill, but because of the distribution of cards in his or her opponents’ hands, and the inability […]

Osborne Will Be Pleased With The Revolution In His Fortunes

What a difference two years makes. At this point in 2012, George Osborne’s budget was under fire from all sides, and the Chancellor himself found both his competence and career being called into question. That must now seem like a bad dream, as he reviews the 2014 headlines hailing his policy radicalism and political nous. […]

The Boris Problem – And How To Minimise It.

Some readers of this newsletter will have followed this week’s headlines about Tory tensions involving George Osborne, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson.  They therefore won’t be familiar with the detail – but will have picked up a clear impression: namely, that the flow of stories about possible future Conservative leaders has done nothing to help […]

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